一种面向Agent的概念化建模方法*

面向Agent的建模方法为基于Agent系统的概念化描述提供了一种新的技术.针对多Agent系统分析与建模问题,扩展并规范了面向Agent概念化建模过程,定义了Agent模型及其扩展模型,并给出了形式化描述.同时,给出面向Agent的分析和设计过程,为其具体建模提供了一种高层指导.最后,与其它现有面向Agent的方法在应用方面进行了类比分析,为该方法的广泛和深入地应用研究打下基础.     

武器装备体系能力矩阵评估方法

针对武器装备体系能力难以客观、定量评估的问题,引入复杂网络理论,提出了基于矩阵运算的武器装备体系能力评估方法。分析了武器装备体系能力的概念,建立了武器装备体系的复杂层次网络模型,描述了装备网络的组成、运行过程,定义了装备网络的矩阵描述方法和矩阵运算规则,提出了装备网络作战能力描述参数,给出了装备网络能力的矩阵计算方法,进行了影响因素分析,最后通过实例验证了方法可行性、有效性和灵活性。     

对我国农村环境污染防治对策的系统分析

分析了现阶段我国农村环境污染的主要特点，并对农村环境污染防治的宏观对策进行了系统性分析。由手农村污染严重、防治形势严峻且比城市环境污染情况复杂，在制定农村环境污染防治对策时，需要运用系统工程原理全方位、全过程分析实际情况，制定整体效果最优的系统化对策组合，并注意对策措施的系统性、协调性、连续性和针对性。     

Subspace dynamic‐simplex linear interpolation search for mixed‐integer black‐box optimization problems

Design and management of complex systems with both integer and continuous decision variables can be guided using mixed‐integer optimization models and analysis. We propose a new mixed‐integer black‐box optimization (MIBO) method, subspace dynamic‐simplex linear interpolation search (SD‐SLIS), for decision making problems in which system performance can only be evaluated with a computer black‐box model. Through a sequence of gradient‐type local searches in subspaces of solution space, SD‐SLIS is particularly efficient for such MIBO problems with scaling issues. We discuss the convergence conditions and properties of SD‐SLIS algorithms for a class of MIBO problems. Under mild conditions, SD‐SLIS is proved to converge to a stationary solution asymptotically. We apply SD‐SLIS to six example problems including two MIBO problems associated with petroleum field development projects. The algorithm performance of SD‐SLIS is compared with that of a state‐of‐the‐art direct‐search method, NOMAD, and that of a full space simplex interpolation search, Full‐SLIS. The numerical results suggest that SD‐SLIS solves the example problems efficiently and outperforms the compared methods for most of the example cases. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 305–322, 2017     

基于HAZOP法的飞行冲突故障树的建立

针对故障树的建立中所存在的主观性、覆盖性、以及模糊性等问题,提出了一种基于HAZOP法来建立进近和离场期间飞行冲突故障树的方法。通过引导词与航管参数的排列组合确定偏差,然后以偏差事件为节点,分析产生偏差的原因和造成的结果并构建故障树,最后对故障树进行定性定量分析。并以美国两架民航客机在机场上空发生的飞行冲突示例了完整的建模过程。结果表明所建立的故障树在能准确分析飞行冲突成因的基础上,较好地解决传统FTA所存在的局限性。     

Transient analysis of Markov models of fault‐tolerant systems with deferred repair using split regenerative randomization

The (standard) randomization method is an attractive alternative for the transient analysis of continuous time Markov models. The main advantages of the method are numerical stability, well‐controlled computation error, and ability to specify the computation error in advance. However, the fact that the method can be computationally very expensive limits its applicability. In this paper, we develop a new method called split regenerative randomization, which, having the same good properties as standard randomization, can be significantly more efficient. The method covers reliability‐like models with a particular but quite general structure and requires the selection of a subset of states and a regenerative state satisfying some conditions. For a class of continuous time Markov models, model class C₂, including typical failure/repair reliability‐like models with exponential failure and repair time distributions and deferred repair, natural selections are available for both the subset of states and the regenerative state and, for those natural selections, theoretical results are available assessing the efficiency of the method in terms of “visible” model characteristics. Those results can be used to anticipate when the method can be expected to be competitive. We illustrate the application of the method using a large class C₂ model and show that for models in that class the method can indeed be significantly more efficient than previously available randomization‐based methods. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Emergency transshipment in decentralized dealer networks: When to send and accept transshipment requests

While there has been significant previous literature on inventory transshipment, most research has focused on the dealers' demand filling decision (when to fill transshipment requests from other dealers), ignoring the requesting decision (when to send transshipment requests to other dealers). In this paper we develop optimal inventory transshipment policies that incorporate both types of decisions. We consider a decentralized system in which the dealers are independent of the manufacturer and of each other. We first study a network consisting of a very large number of dealers. We prove that the optimal inventory and transshipment decisions for an individual dealer are controlled by threshold rationing and requesting levels. Then, in order to study the impact of transshipment among independent dealers in a smaller dealer network, we consider a decentralized two‐dealer network and use a game theoretic approach to characterize the equilibrium inventory strategies of the individual dealers. An extensive numerical study highlights the impact of the requesting decision on the dealers' equilibrium behavior in a decentralized setting. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

模糊逻辑系统在船舶风险评估中的应用

为了合理进行船舶风险评估,提出了一种基于模糊逻辑系统的船舶风险评估方法.根据模糊逻辑系统的基本原理,建立了船舶风险评估的模糊逻辑模型;按照国家标准、规范,并结合经验建立了风险指标的模糊集合、风险矩阵及模糊规则,然后进行了模糊推理,得到了系统的风险等级,并制定了预防风险的措施.以某艇消防系统的风险评估为例,证明了其能够合理地评估出系统的风险,可为决策提供参考.     

基于可拓工程方法的舰空导弹作战通道性能分析

分析了舰空导弹作战通道性能的影响因素,应用可拓工程方法建立了舰空导弹作战通道性能多指标参数的物元可拓评估模型,以定量的结果对舰空导弹作战通道性能进行了评估分级,并与层次分析法的结果进行了比较,结论基本一致。为舰空导弹作战通道性能评估问题寻求出一种新方法,其评估结果可为决策提供定量依据。     

军队工程招标激励模型研究

运用激励理论研究了军队工程招标采购过程中军方与承包商之间的关系,建立了军队工程招标激励模型。在不完全信息和竞争性招标中,投标人的行为是追求最大的效用,军方则需要建立一种机制诱使投标人按真实成本信息报价,以达到预期支付最小的目的。这种招标博弈的结果是军方与投标人之间达成贝叶斯纳什均衡(Bayesian Nash equilib- rium),即军方利用激励合同诱使投标人报出其真实成本,而投标人为达到中标目的则必须采取讲真话的占优策略,最终在双方均可接受的条件下达成协议。在此基础上,结合实际研究提出了改进的综合评标模型。